11 November, 2022 18:52

…Updated Aviation Discussion…

.Short Term…(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

…Minor Snow Accumulations on Elevated Surfaces Possible Saturday Morning…

Current surface analysis reveals the remnants of Nicole are centered over the far western tip of North Carolina, with the associated precipitation shield generally confined to the Bluegrass Region and areas east. Expect rainfall will gradually taper off over the next few hours as the system lifts northeast out of the region. A bit farther west, a NNE-SSW oriented cold front continues to push eastward through south-central IN and central KY, with cooler and drier air gradually filtering in behind the front. Observations from the KY Mesonet show temperatures generally in the lower to mid 60s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s ahead of the front, while to the west, temperatures are beginning to drop into the mid 50s with dewpoints in the mid 40s.

Temperatures will steadily decline overnight, reaching into the lower to mid 30s by Saturday morning (roughly 30 degrees cooler than today). Under persistent cloud cover and CAA, temperatures will struggle to warm, topping out in the upper 30s to lower 40s. More notable perhaps will be the potential for a wintry mix across the area tomorrow as a shortwave lifts NE through the ArkLaMs region and through the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation may begin moving into far southwestern portions of the area (Ohio County to Allen County and points westward) early Saturday morning (12/09Z) and continue spreading northeast across the area through the morning hours, likely pulling out of the Bluegrass region by early afternoon.

Precipitation may initially begin as rain, but then expect a relatively quick transition to snowfall for areas generally along and north of the WK/BG Parkways. In between the rain/snow transition zone, model soundings indicate there may be enough of a warm nose for a brief period of sleet to mix in, but not currently expecting much in the way of impacts from that. Model guidance has continued to nudge upwards with estimated snowfall accumulations, signaling the potential for a band of locally higher snowfall amounts to set up somewhere across the region. While pavement and ground
temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, snowfall rates within any heavier bands may be enough to overcome this and lead to minor accumulations on roadways. Current expectation is that slushy snowfall accumulations from a dusting to one inch will be possible along and north of the WK/BG Pkwys, mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces. Within heavier bands, may see brief accumulations on roadways, with locally higher amounts of 2-3 inches not entirely out of the question. Will continue to monitor closely this evening.

.Long Term…(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022