11 November, 2022 21:36

.Forecast Update…
Issued at 935 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

Low-level cold air advection is in full swing this evening behind the departing cold front. Temperatures range from the mid 40s in the west to the mid 50s in the east but will continue to drop steadily tonight. A compact mid-level wave over ArkLaTex this evening is forecast to quickly lift northeast into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tomorrow morning. This quick-hitting system will provide robust lift through the mid-levels, but only over a relatively short time frame.

Wintry precipitation is still expected to overspread the entire area from southwest to northeast through the early to mid morning hours, with precipitation departing by late morning/early afternoon. P- types should consist of a slushy rain/sleet/snow mix, with more rain/sleet in south-central KY and mainly snow in southern IN and northern portions of central KY. Snowfall accumulation ranging from a trace to around 1 inch continues to look possible, much of which should be confined to grass and elevated surfaces like decks, roofs, etc. Briefly heavier snowfall rates may be able to briefly stick to roads, but should melt off almost immediately after the snow ends. Roads should stay mainly just wet with pavement temperatures lingering above freezing.

Bottom line…a short period of snow is likely Saturday morning across southern Indiana and portions of central Kentucky. The most likely scenario is around a half inch or less of accumulation in most areas. In southern Indiana, there is a 10 percent chance of exceeding 1 inch of snow accumulation. Localized higher totals are possible, as are a few slick spots. Any travel impacts should be pretty limited, so will stick with the current Special Weather Statement.


.Short Term…(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

…Minor Snow Accumulations on Elevated Surfaces Possible Saturday Morning…

Current surface analysis reveals the remnants of Nicole are centered over the far western tip of North Carolina, with the associated precipitation shield generally confined to the Bluegrass Region and areas east. Expect rainfall will gradually taper off over the next few hours as the system lifts northeast out of the region. A bit farther west, a NNE-SSW oriented cold front continues to push eastward through south-central IN and central KY, with cooler and drier air gradually filtering in behind the front. Observations from the KY Mesonet show temperatures generally in the lower to mid 60s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s ahead of the front, while to the west, temperatures are beginning to drop into the mid 50s with dewpoints in the mid 40s.

Temperatures will steadily decline overnight, reaching into the lower to mid 30s by Saturday morning (roughly 30 degrees cooler than today). Under persistent cloud cover and CAA, temperatures will struggle to warm, topping out in the upper 30s to lower 40s. More notable perhaps will be the potential for a wintry mix across the area tomorrow as a shortwave lifts NE through the ArkLaMs region and through the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation may begin moving into far southwestern portions of the area (Ohio County to Allen County and points westward) early Saturday morning (12/09Z) and continue spreading northeast across the area through the morning hours, likely pulling out of the Bluegrass region by early afternoon.

Precipitation may initially begin as rain, but then expect a relatively quick transition to snowfall for areas generally along and north of the WK/BG Parkways. In between the rain/snow transition zone, model soundings indicate there may be enough of a warm nose for a brief period of sleet to mix in, but not currently expecting much in the way of impacts from that. Model guidance has continued to nudge upwards with estimated snowfall accumulations, signaling the potential for a band of locally higher snowfall amounts to set up somewhere across the region. While pavement and ground
temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, snowfall rates within any heavier bands may be enough to overcome this and lead to minor accumulations on roadways. Current expectation is that slushy snowfall accumulations from a dusting to one inch will be possible along and north of the WK/BG Pkwys, mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces. Within heavier bands, may see brief accumulations on roadways, with locally higher amounts of 2-3 inches not entirely out of the question. Will continue to monitor closely this evening.

.Long Term…(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022